Every player prop on today's slate β our projection and the model's win probability next to the posted line, plus last-10 hit rate. β marks demon / goblin lines. Projections, not graded plays: our own graded board is 53.6% on 1,446 decided picks since our inputs were repaired on 2026-07-28, and 53.7% on 1,757 decided across all 106 graded slates, below the ~54% break-even of the -119 leg the grader prices, and below the 57.7% a two-pick entry has to clear.
Model calibrated on real graded outcomes — see the proof| Player | Team | Matchup | Pick | Proj | Win% | Hit rate (L5/L10/L20/Szn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Ji-chan κΉμ§μ°¬ | SAMSUNG | @ KIA · Shirakawa Keisho | UNDER Hits+Runs+RBIs 2 | 1.59 | 1/10 | |
| Choi Won-tae μ΅μν | SAMSUNG | @ KIA | UNDER Pitching Outs 15.5 | 14.64 | 3/10 | |
| Choi Won-tae μ΅μν | SAMSUNG | @ KIA | UNDER Hits Allowed 5.5 | 5.16 | 3/10 | |
| Park Jae-hyun λ°μ¬ν | KIA | vs SAMSUNG · Choi Won-tae | UNDER Hits+Runs+RBIs 2 | 2.04 | 4/10 | |
| Park Seung-kyu λ°μΉκ· | SAMSUNG | @ KIA · Shirakawa Keisho | UNDER Hits+Runs+RBIs 1.5 | 1.64 | 3/10 |